Bitcoin Risk Brief

Bitcoin Risk Brief

Bitcoin Risk Brief is a free, open-source product that turns canonical daily BTC/USD data into a transparent risk score, freshness state, and scenario price ladder. It is free permanently: no paid tier, no accounts, no SLA. The owned source code, documentation, and configuration are Apache-2.0; bundled third-party BTC/USD market data is not.

First viewport captured on 2026-08-09; the values shown are a point-in-time example.

Live product: bitcoinriskbrief.minihub.app

Check readiness before using any current value:

curl --fail --silent --show-error https://bitcoinriskbrief.minihub.app/api/readiness

Response captured on 2026-08-09:

{
  "status": "ready",
  "checks": {
    "risk_data_available": true,
    "validation_available": true,
    "risk_range_ok": true,
    "validation_has_rows": true,
    "latest_matches_validation_end": true,
    "source_is_canonical": true,
    "data_fresh": true
  },
  "data": {
    "latest_date": "2026-08-08",
    "covered_end": "2026-08-08",
    "data_age_days": 1,
    "max_age_days": 2,
    "source": "coinmarketcap_csv",
    "row_count": 5871,
    "methodology_version": "crypto-scout-canonical-v1.1"
  }
}

What it does

• Computes a daily 0.0–1.0 Bitcoin risk metric from the canonical collector/btc-csv/btc_usd_daily.csv history.
• Shows the latest low, neutral, or high state alongside a two-year risk history chart.
• Displays completed-candle HLC3 model price context and a risk-level scenario ladder in 0.025 increments.
• Publishes a daily brief in English, Russian, Simplified Chinese, German, French, Spanish, and Arabic.
• Exposes read-only analytics endpoints and accepts email waitlist contacts server-side, never in browser storage; users should not submit sensitive information.

What makes it different

• Visible freshness and readiness. The UI shows the latest completed day and validation state; /api/readiness returns HTTP 503 when freshness or validation checks fail.
• Deterministic and reproducible. A versioned methodology recomputes the metric from the same canonical daily history, with validation metadata recording each import.
• Scenarios, not forecasts. The price ladder runs hypothetical prices through the same model to show where risk levels would change; it is not a prediction or trading instruction.

Current Status

Current operational status, evidence, and accepted limitations: Production Readiness.

For AI agents

Start with the repository llms.txt. This branch defines the machine-readable /api/openapi.json endpoint; deployment remains pending operator work. Use the Agent Access Pack for endpoint examples, cache semantics, and interpretation boundaries.

Agents must call /api/readiness first, bind reported values to its dates and freshness state, and preserve the analytics-not-advice framing.

Architecture

flowchart LR
    Source[CoinMarketCap public download<br/>or optional API] --> CSV[Canonical BTC daily CSV]
    Schedule[Daily collector schedule] --> Collector[data-collector]
    CSV --> Collector
    Collector --> DB[(TimescaleDB)]
    DB --> API[FastAPI backend]
    API --> UI[React frontend]
    API --> Agents[AI agents and API clients]

The canonical CSV remains the durable source of truth; the collector refreshes and validates it, recomputes risk, and writes the daily snapshot consumed by the API.

Quick Start

cp .env.example .env
./scripts/manage.sh validate
./scripts/manage.sh start
./scripts/manage.sh migrate
./scripts/manage.sh backfill

Open: http://localhost:3001

Documentation

• Documentation index
• Product overview
• Risk methodology
• Architecture
• API reference
• Freshness and validation
• Agent documentation
• Operations and production evidence

Disclaimer and licence

Bitcoin Risk Brief provides analytics and research context only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, a price forecast, or a trading recommendation.

Owned source code, documentation, and configuration are licensed under Apache-2.0. Bundled third-party BTC/USD market data remains subject to source-provider terms; see NOTICE.